Reviewing the factors driving demand for regional tourism in Uruguay

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v20.3423

Keywords:

Tourism demand, Real exchange rate, Cointegration

Abstract

Tourism is a key driver of Uruguay’s economy, accounting for around 9% of GDP and 7% of total employment. Argentina and Brazil are the main source markets, together accounting for approximately 70% of total tourism demand. This paper reviews recent evidence on the long-run relationship between tourism demand, income, and the real exchange rate using vector error correction models (VECM), estimated separately for Argentina and Brazil from January 2005 to June 2025. An uncertainty measure is also incorporated to assess its potential effects. The results show that Argentine tourism demand responds to both income and relative prices, with an income elasticity close to 4, confirming tourism as a luxury good, while uncertainty has no significant effect. In contrast, Brazilian demand is driven exclusively by income, with an elasticity close to 3, and uncertainty behaves as an exogenous factor. Forecasts suggest that Argentine tourism would grow by 8% in 2025 and 8.5% in 2026, while Brazilian tourism is projected to increase by 12% and 9%, respectively. Impulse response functions indicate strong income effects in both markets, with faster short-run adjustment in Argentina (three months) than in Brazil (about one year).

 

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Author Biographies

Gabriela Mordecki, University of the Republic of Uruguay

Bachelor's degree in Economics and Master's degree in Trade Modelling and Policy from the University of Antwerp (UFSIA), Belgium, and specialization in Industrial Economics from the Regional University of Blumenau (FURB), Brazil. Professor and researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of the Republic (FCEA, UDELAR). Works in short-run economics, uncertainty, competitiveness, economic projections, and tourism economics. Contributions: Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Supervision, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing.

Sofía Domingorena, University of the Republic of Uruguay

Bachelor's degree in Economics and Master's degree in Economics from the School of Economics and Business Administration at the University of the Republic of Uruguay. PhD candidate at the University of Jaén. Academic studies focused on quantitative methods, particularly time-series econometrics. Contributions: Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing - original draft, riting - review & editing.

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Published

2026-07-01

How to Cite

Mordecki, G., & Domingorena, S. (2026). Reviewing the factors driving demand for regional tourism in Uruguay. Revista Brasileira De Pesquisa Em Turismo, 20, 3423. https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v20.3423

Issue

Vol. 20 (2026)

Section

Articles - Tourism Management

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Copyright (c) 2026 Gabriela Mordecki, Sofía Domingorena

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