Analisando os fatores que impulsionam a demanda por turismo regional no Uruguai

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v20.3423

Palavras-chave:

Demanda turística, Taxa de câmbio real, Cointegração

Resumo

O turismo é um motor fundamental da economia uruguaia, representando cerca de 9% do PIB e 7% do emprego total. Argentina e Brasil são os principais mercados emissores e, em conjunto, respondem por aproximadamente 70% da demanda turística total. Este trabalho revisa evidências recentes sobre a relação de longo prazo entre a demanda turística, a renda e a taxa de câmbio real, utilizando modelos vetoriais de correção de erros (VECM), estimados separadamente para a Argentina e o Brasil no período de janeiro de 2005 a junho de 2025. Além disso, incorpora-se uma medida de incerteza para avaliar seus possíveis efeitos. Os resultados mostram que a demanda turística argentina responde tanto à renda quanto aos preços relativos, com uma elasticidade-renda próxima de 4, o que confirma o turismo como um bem de luxo, enquanto a incerteza não apresenta efeito significativo. Em contraste, a demanda brasileira é impulsionada exclusivamente pela renda, com elasticidade próxima de 3, e a incerteza comporta-se como um fator exógeno. As projeções sugerem que o turismo argentino cresceria 8% em 2025 e 8,5% em 2026, enquanto o turismo brasileiro aumentaria 12% e 9%, respectivamente. A análise das funções impulso-resposta indica fortes efeitos da renda em ambos os mercados, com um ajuste de curto prazo mais rápido na Argentina (três meses) do que no Brasil (quase um ano).

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Biografia do Autor

Gabriela Mordecki, University of the Republic of Uruguay

Bachelor's degree in Economics and Master's degree in Trade Modelling and Policy from the University of Antwerp (UFSIA), Belgium, and specialization in Industrial Economics from the Regional University of Blumenau (FURB), Brazil. Professor and researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of the Republic (FCEA, UDELAR). Works in short-run economics, uncertainty, competitiveness, economic projections, and tourism economics. Contributions: Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Supervision, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing.

Sofía Domingorena, University of the Republic of Uruguay

Bachelor's degree in Economics and Master's degree in Economics from the School of Economics and Business Administration at the University of the Republic of Uruguay. PhD candidate at the University of Jaén. Academic studies focused on quantitative methods, particularly time-series econometrics. Contributions: Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing - original draft, riting - review & editing.

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Publicado

2026-07-01

Como Citar

Mordecki, G., & Domingorena, S. (2026). Analisando os fatores que impulsionam a demanda por turismo regional no Uruguai. Revista Brasileira De Pesquisa Em Turismo, 20, 3423. https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v20.3423

Edição

v. 20 (2026)

Seção

Artigos - Gestão do Turismo

Licença

Copyright (c) 2026 Gabriela Mordecki, Sofía Domingorena

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