COVID-19

Consequências econômicas para uma pequena economia dependente do turismo

Resumo

Este artigo analisa o impacto econômico da pandemia de COVID-19 em uma pequena economia aberta e dependente do turismo. O lockdown afetou tanto o lado da demanda, quanto o lado da oferta da economia, uma vez que a produção de bens e serviços caiu drasticamente devido a fechamentos de empresas, cadeias de abastecimento interrompidas ou falências. A demanda agregada diminuiu devido à menor confiança do consumidor e cortes de investimentos, acompanhados por uma queda dramática na demanda de turismo internacional, em particular devido a restrições de viagens. Vemos essas mudanças na oferta e na demanda pelas lentes de um modelo macroeconômico de uma pequena economia aberta que compreende um setor industrial e um de turismo. Para este efeito, modificamos o modelo de Schubert (2013), introduzindo um choque múltiplo que reflete (i) produtividade setorial reduzida devido a, por exemplo, cadeias de abastecimento interrompidas, (ii) uma queda no emprego devido ao fechamento de empresas, e (iii) um declínio acentuado na demanda de turismo internacional. Descobrimos que o choque múltiplo leva a uma queda imediata do PIB e um aumento da taxa de desemprego de curto prazo, seguido por uma transição gradual de volta ao estado estacionário. Os efeitos adversos sobre o setor de turismo são tanto mais graves quanto mais lenta for o retorno da demanda turística internacional aos níveis anteriores à crise. Contudo, os efeitos sobre o turismo não afetam fortemente o setor industrial. Além disso, mesmo que a demanda turística internacional se recupere rapidamente, os efeitos sobre o setor industrial praticamente não mudam. A duração da recuperação do setor industrial depende basicamente da velocidade de restauração de sua produtividade setorial, e não da demanda turística internacional. A razão para esse resultado pode ser encontrada no poder de absorção do preço relativo dos serviços turísticos em termos do bem industrial.

Biografia do Autor

Stefan Franz Schubert, Free University of Bozen

Free University of Bozen

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Publicado
14-01-2021
Seção
Fast track - Workshop Tourism: Economics and Management