Crecimiento económico y turismo en América Latina y el Caribe
un análisis comparativo mediante técnicas de agrupamiento y pruebas de causalidad
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v15i1.2300Palabras clave:
Crecimiento económico, Turismo, Dinámica de regimenes, Análisis de cluster, América Latina.Resumen
Tendo em vista o crescente interesse no estudo da dinâmica do turismo e suas im-plicações para o crescimento econômico, este trabalho avança nesse sentido estu-dando o caso da América Latina e do Caribe. A partir da concepção dos regimes econômicos e da simbolização das séries temporais, realizamos uma análise de cluster e posterior estimativa da relação de causalidade entre o crescimento econômico e o desempenho do turismo para 22 países da América Latina e Caribe. Considerando o período entre 1995 e 2015, os resultados mostram a existência de dois grupos de países com comportamento dinâmico semelhante dentro deles. As estimativas demonstram uma relação causal positiva e unidirecional do crescimento econômico para o setor turístico no cluster de baixo turismo, e uma relação causal também positiva e bidirecional no de alto turismo.
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