Crescimento econômico e turismo na América Latina e no Caribe
uma análise comparativa usando técnicas de agrupamento e testes de causalidade
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v15i1.2300Palavras-chave:
Crescimento econômico, Turismo, Dinâmica do regime, Análise de cluster, Causalidade, América Latina.Resumo
A partir del creciente interés en el estudio de la dinámica del turismo y sus implicancias en el crecimiento económico, este trabajo busca aportar en esa línea para el caso particular de América Latina y el Caribe, una región en constante proceso de desarrollo. A partir de un estudio utilizando el concepto de regímenes económicos y simbolización de series temporales, se propone realizar un análisis de cluster y una posterior estimación de las relaciones dinámicas existentes entre el crecimiento económico y el turismo para 22 países de América Latina y el Caribe entre 1995-2015. Los resultados muestran la existencia de dos grupos de países con un comportamiento dinámico similar que, a su vez, no parecen converger en el tiempo. Se observa la existencia de una relación causal positiva unidireccional desde el crecimiento hacia el turismo en el grupo de turismo bajo y una relación bidireccional también positiva en el caso del grupo con turismo elevado.
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