Crescimento econômico e turismo na América Latina e no Caribe

uma análise comparativa usando técnicas de agrupamento e testes de causalidade

  • Martin Olivera Berthier Universidad de la Reopublica https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9893-3233
  • Juan Gabriel Brida Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos Facultad de Cien-cias Económicas y de Administración Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-5790
  • Verónica Segarra Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Facultad de Cien-cias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0436-3303
Palavras-chave: Crescimento econômico, Turismo, Dinâmica do regime, Análise de cluster, Causalidade, América Latina.

Resumo

A partir del creciente interés en el estudio de la dinámica del turismo y sus implicancias en el crecimiento económico, este trabajo busca aportar en esa línea para el caso particular de América Latina y el Caribe, una región en constante proceso de desarrollo. A partir de un estudio utilizando el concepto de regímenes económicos y simbolización de series temporales, se propone realizar un análisis de cluster y una posterior estimación de las relaciones dinámicas existentes entre el crecimiento económico y el turismo para 22 países de América Latina y el Caribe entre 1995-2015. Los resultados muestran la existencia de dos grupos de países con un comportamiento dinámico similar que, a su vez, no parecen converger en el tiempo. Se observa la existencia de una relación causal positiva unidireccional desde el crecimiento hacia el turismo en el grupo de turismo bajo y una relación bidireccional también positiva en el caso del grupo con turismo elevado.

Biografia do Autor

Martin Olivera Berthier, Universidad de la Reopublica

He is a Research Assistant of Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay. He received a bachelor degree in Economics and he is currently a Msc. student in Economics at the UdelaR. His main research areas include tourism economics and dynamics quantitative methods.

Juan Gabriel Brida, Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos Facultad de Cien-cias Económicas y de Administración Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay.

He is a Full Professor of Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay. He received his PhD in Economics from the University of Siena, in Italy. His research interests and expertise include the areas of tourism economics and economic dynamics.

Verónica Segarra, Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Facultad de Cien-cias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay.

She is an Assistant Professor of Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay. She is a PhD student in Economics (University of Murcia, UM, Spain), and she received a Msc. in Economics from the UdelaR. She is a member of Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE) and Grupo de Investigación en Administración y Economía del Turismo (GAET). Her research interests include economic dynamics and tourism economics.

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Publicado
14-01-2021
Seção
Fast track - Workshop Tourism: Economics and Management