Modelagem e previsão da procura por turismo internacional em Puno-Peru
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v14i1.1606Palavras-chave:
Sazonalidade, lago Titicaca, Peru, ARIMA, CulturaResumo
La industria del turismo en el Perú genera cerca de 1.1 millones de puestos de trabajo y aporta el 3.3% del PBI, lo que la convierte en una de sus principales actividades económicas, de esta forma el turismo deja de ser sólo una actividad comercial y se transforma en una herramienta para el desarrollo de la población peruana especialmente en las regiones con alta tasa de pobreza y con numerosos atractivos turísticos como es el caso de la región de Puno con una tasa de pobreza de 24.2% que está ubicada en el sur del país y que cuenta con numerosos atractivos turísticos de tipo naturales, históricos, culturales y gastronómicos. El objetivo de esta investigación es modelar y proyectar la demanda de turistas internacionales que visitan Puno utilizando la metodología ARIMA de Box-Jenkins, para ello el estudio considera información mensual de arribo de turistas internacionales entre los años 2003 a 2017. Finalmente, utilizando los estadísticos MAPE, Z, r, Criterio de Información de Akaike (AIC) y Criterio de Schwarz (SC) se identificó al modelo SARIMA (6, 1, 24)(1, 0, 1)12 como el más eficiente para el modelamiento y proyección de la demanda del turismo internacional en la región de Puno.
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