A demanda turística de México e Uruguai

Palavras-chave: Demanda turística, Cointegração, Taxa de câmbio real, México, Uruguai, JEL: C32, F14, F41.

Resumo

O principal objetivo deste documento é estimar a demanda do México e do Uruguai, dois países muito diferentes, mas o turismo para ambos é uma atividade relevante, e também os turistas vêm principalmente de um grande vizinho. Procuramos analisar se os determinantes da demanda turística diferem em função do tamanho do país, ou se ser um país vizinho é o principal determinante. Portanto, analisamos a relação entre o número de turistas norte-americanos que visitam o México e turistas argentinos que visitam o Uruguai, considerando o nível de renda dos turistas e a taxa de câmbio real bilateral (TCR) entre o país visitante e o anfitrião, seguindo a metodologia de Johansen. A partir daí, encontramos uma relação de cointegração para cada país, onde a elasticidade-renda resultou maior que 2 para turistas americanos no México e quase 3 para turistas argentinos no Uruguai. As TCRs bilaterais também foram significativas em ambos os modelos. Além disso, as projeções estimadas mostram as consequências das mudanças institucionais no setor de turismo. A chegada do presidente Macri ao poder foi positiva para os turistas argentinos que visitaram o Uruguai, mas a chegada do presidente Trump aos Estados Unidos foi negativa para os turistas americanos que visitaram o México.

Biografia do Autor

Gabriela Mordecki, Instituto de economía, Facultad de ciencias económicas y de administración, Universidad de la Repúbica, Uruguay
Associated Professor, Full time, Director, Instituto de Economia (IECON), FCEA, UDELAR, Uruguay. Master's level diploma in “Trade modelling and Policy: Regional Economic Integration” Antwerp University (UFSIA), Belgium, October 2000. Specialization in Industrial Economy, Blumenau Regional University (FURB), Brazil, March 1992. Economist, July 1986, UDELAR, Uruguay
Ana Cecilia Leiva, University of Oslo,
Master Student, University of Oslo, Finland. Economist, December 2016, UDELAR, Uruguay.  
Nathalie Desplas Puel, Tenure Professor and Director of the Tourism Research Center at Tecnológico de Monterrey,
Tenure Professor and Director of the Tourism Research Center at Tecnológico de Monterrey, Chihuahua, Mexico. Visiting professor in Hungary and USA. Economics Sciences PhD, University of La Havana, Cuba. Economic Sciences Master’s Degree, La Sorbonne University, Paris, France.

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Publicado
03-09-2019